AL Central Competition

Earlier this week, one of the STRIB bloggers commented that the White Sox are the team in the AL Central that Twins must fear. I think he phrased it rather poorly. This week's series with the Yankees reminded that there is just one ballclub in the American League Central that threatens the Twins chances of winning the division. Despite the shortcomings I rant about, the division belongs to the Twins if they want it. They have two of the best hitters in baseball protected by three more solid threats. I may complain about Punto, but I can live with a lineup in which he is the only lousy hitter. The starting pitching has been solid lately, and now that the only current relief pitchers I can name are Dickey, Guerrier, and Nathan I feel better about the bullpen. The division is the Twins to lose and they have most of the same players as last year. Did they learn anything from all of those "It's-only-one-game" quotes on 2008?

The Script

Last night- well technically this morning- the Twins found themselves on the losing end of one of my favorite "scripts" for a baseball game. As is typically the case with games like these, I missed the first few innings. I turn on the radio, "and the Twins trailing six to nothing here in the third." The Twins added two runs in the third and fourth allowing the "it's still early; maybe they can creep back into this" thought to creep into fans' heads. Then they put up 5 in the 6th to tie it at 7 and knock the opposing starter from the game. At this point, I probably should have just shut the radio off for an hour or two because I've followed baseball long enough to know to expect the game to play out like this:

"They're in the bottom of the 7th out in Los Angeles. Here at the Metrodome, neither team has scored since the 6th inning."

"The Tigers take a one run lead here, and the last man in the bullpen will be on to try to stop the Twins."

"The Twins manage to tie in the bottom of the inning. The Orioles have wrapped up their win in Anaheim. Is that Scott Baker heading down to the Twins bullpen?"

There's nothing quite like that moment in the 12th inning when you realize you've heard a full 9 innings even though you started late. I guess the only thing missing from this game was the big hit from a defensive replacement in his second at-bat and the great defensive play by the pinch-hitter.

Pujols

There is some outrage that the Twins opted to pitch to the Cardinals star slugger. Ordinarily, I am not one to focus too much on statistics. I don't care about OBPS and I don't know what VORP means. Generally, if it sounds like the onamotapeoia from the old live-action Batman show with Adam West, I ignore it. On the other hand, simple statistics such as at-bats, hits, RBI's, and HR's distinguish perception and reality with a hitter like Pujols. While two-thirds of my readers are far more qualified to assess the risk than I am, I took a look at what the numbers say about the decision to pitch to Pujols.

First of all, he has 314 plate appearances in which he has not been intentionally walked. In those he has 74 RBI's (assuming he was not intentionally passed with bases loaded) and 28 HRs. If you assume 5 trips to the plate per game, an opposing manager could expect Pujols to drive in 1.16 runs if he pitches to Pujols each time. That is not going to beat you unless he gets some help. Right now, the skeptics are thinking that his overall numbers are skewed because managers pitch around him in tight spots. He's been intentionally walked 24 times. Let's (generously) assume that instead he hit a 3-run homer in every one those trips to the plate. Using that rate of run production, he'd still only be expected to drive in 2 runs per 5 plate appearances. That's an absolute upper bound on the damage we should expect, and it's still not enough to win a game.

Sometimes he might hit two home runs against you. In 4 trips to the plate, he has about a 5% at hitting at least two home runs. By contrast, he has a 15% chance of going 0-4. He is three times more likely to go hitless than he is to hit two home runs. The conventional wisdom to pitch around him is based largely on the weakness of the rest of the order. If Pujols goes ofer, the rest of the lineup has some work to do. Yesterday, the Twins were victims of a rare- but nonetheless possible- occurrence. I'm willing to excuse the pitcher for throwing meatballs because all of these probabilities implicitly incorporate the reality that pitchers can't always hit their spots. Even then, Pujols did not beat the Twins yesterday. The Twins lost because they made a fielding error, hit a batter, the guy hitting ahead of Pujols had two hits, and the Twins refused to generate any offense after the fourth inning.

Annual Traditions

While I've been too lazy to post, Twins players, coaches, and reporters have begun one of my favorite June traditions. "This is where we were last year" rings the chorus. "We usually hit a hot streak about this time" the say. Where did they end up last year? They lost game 163 1-0 because they only managed a single win against the Royals on the final weekend. In 2008, "last year" they muddled to a sub-five-hundred third-place finish after muddling around .500 for the first two months. In the Twins favorite last year- 2006- they completed a 4-month comeback to overtake the Tigers and earn the right to a disastrous, embarrassing three-game sweep against the A's. In 2005, they were about .500 in June, and finished at about .500 for third place. I'm sick and tired of the Twins propaganda machine telling us to be excited about mediocrity. A good place to be in June is having already played two and half months of good baseball. In 2002, by June, the Twins commanded a several game lead in the division. A dominant series to begin the month knocked Cleveland down for several years, and the White Sox stumbled about .500. At this point, talk focused not on their status in the division, but rather on how the Twins matched up against other teams in Major League Baseball.

2005 San Diego Padres

Usually a pennant race features two top-tier rivals playing a heated September series while perhaps scoreboard-watching another foe. The 2009 AL Central may feature a team contending not with another ballclub, but instead a theoretical benchmark. In 2005, the San Diego Padres won the NL West with a record of 82-80. Without doing the research, I'd wager this is the worst ever record to win a division. Second place Arizona finished at 77-85. Could we see the AL Central champion finish the season with a losing record? Conventional wisdom suggest that at about this point of the season, a team or two will hit a hot streak to win pole position for the pennant race. But what if Detroit has already had the hot streak to put themselves in first? If "normal" is worse than they've played- or they slump for a week or two- the entire division could sink below .500. The division's saving grace may be that the games they play amongst each other guarantee 180 total wins for the division.

AL Central

June begins with just 8 games separating first place from last in the American League Central. After a fast start, the Royals have quickly faded to 4th place. The Twins and White Sox have spent two months muddling around .500. Despite high hopes, the Indians early struggles prompted many pundits to dismiss their 2009 season. To date, the Tigers have successfully countered the cynics' speculation of a fire sale. This early June series featuring an inconsistent Twins club hosting a disappointing Indians club will likely define the season for the Central division. A sweep by the Twins announces their intention to win a division title. On the other hand, a sweep by the Indians drags the Twins towards the cellar and gives the Indians hope. In all likelihood, one of the teams will win two of three. Either case suggests four more months of mediocre teams with the least bad holding out to win the division.

Joe Mauer and the Twins Future

The young catcher's hot-hitting has drawn national attention and sparked discussion regarding his future with the Twins. The cynics talk as though he already plays for the Boston Red Sox. On the other hand, the romantics picture the homegrown talent playing his career as a Twin because he is "Minnesota nice." Both sides raise valid points, yet overlook what the most relevant facts have to tell us.

Twins current payroll: $65 million/year
MLB Highest Salary (Alex Rodriguez): $27 million/year
Highest '09 signing and most comparable player (Mark Teixiera): $22 million/year
League Minimum Salary: $390 thousand / year.

The Twins could pay Mauer and Morneau $27 million each, and still have enough of their current payroll left to pay 22 players league minimum and Nick Punto the remaining $4 million. The suggestion may appear to be purely hypothetical speculation, but is it really that much of a change from the current roster? In all likelihood, the Target Field Twins will be a triple-a team with two stars and a few overpaid veterans.

The Pohlads always have run the franchise as a business. They know that they need fans to make money. I doubt Dave St. Peter wants to try to market the Twins should either Mauer or Morneau leave. Inversely, generating fan interest with that pair is considerably easier. Rightfully, fans love Mauer and Morneau, and in the AL Central, the team will always remain competitive enough to keep interest. St. Peter doesn't think fans expect much. In an editorial in today's Star Tribune, he declares, "It doesn't take much to improve the experience of our fans. The bar hasn't been set very high." That says it all. St. Peter and the Pohlads know that if a they can generate interest for a mediocre team in the Metrodome, then they can attract fans to watch a glorified AAA team at Target Field.

Here's the fun part, though. Now we don't have to tolerate it. The organization has no leverage over fans. If they don't field a decent team, we don't have to watch. We've built their stadium and they're stuck with us. Once Target Field opens, it's far easier for the franchise to convince Minnesotans to watch the home team than it would be to convince another metropolitan area to build a stadium. And no matter how much crap Dick Bremer tells us about being a "small market" the people making the business decision realize that the Twin Cities is actually a lucrative location.