Spring Training Statistics

With the season approaching, I thought I'd take a look at the Twins stats for spring training. Delmon Young has put together a solid spring with 4 doubles, 2 home runs, and a .295 batting average. Denard Span has managed just a .159 batting average while leading the team in at bats. You'd expect Morneau to lead the team in homers with 3, and not be too surprised that Gomez and Young are tied for the lead with him. But Matt Tolbert also has three.

What do all of these stats mean? The beauty of spring training statistics is that they mean whatever you want them to mean. I like Gomez and Young, so their performances indicate their merit in the lineup. I'm not a huge fan of Denard Span, so him numbers suggest he should ride the pine. And since I hate Nick Punto, his .429 batting average, 5 doubles, and 5 RBI's mean that he's wasted all of his production in March.

Brendan Harris

I guess I have few grievances left- except this time they aren't with the player. He switched positions three times last year. In the season of injured middle infielders, he was the only one who stayed healthy. He put together a respectable year at the plate for a middle infielder. His 7 HR's are just 3 short of Nick Punto's total as a Twin. Punto managed a combined 53 RBI's in 2007 and 2008 compared to the 49 for Harris in '08. (Harris also had 59 in '07 so don't try to say it was a fluke).

In the field, Harris is nothing to brag about, but his struggles at 2nd and 3rd can at least be somewhat excused with unfamiliarity. At short, his range was limited, but at least he didn't do anything stupid on the plays he could reach. He also has a strange tendency to set his feet before making a strong, accurate throw.

I guess I do have one complaint. Trim those sideburns! Then maybe Gardy will put you in the game.

The Outfied

Please forgive the delay. A busy week at the office followed by a cold amidst the endless and pointless spring training which has produced little blog worthy material. That, and I didn't want to tip my hand in my roto league fantasy draft.

The consensus seems to be that the Twins enter 2009 with a surplus of outfielders. In reality, they are a Denard Span slump and the Dave Kingman ball falling and injuring Michael Cuddyer away from Jason Pridie stepping onto the field. Have Chad Allen, Dustan Mohr, Bobby Kielty, Lew Ford, and Jason Tyner lowered our expectations so much that we regard "enough" as an abundance?

Kubel should spend most of his time at DH. Span plays the field gracefully, but his minor league track record casts plenty of doubt that he can maintain his 2008 production. It's equally believable that Gomez could finish the year in Rochester as it is that he could win an MVP award. Cuddyer has a cannon, always hits the cut-off man, and has shown he can be a threat at the plate, but he has limited range, tends to strikeout, and suffers slapstick injuries. Delmon Young is the safest bet in '09, but between his awkward fielding and the Twins insistence on "correcting" his swing may limit him value. All things considered, this is a pretty good set of options for the outfield. But don't think for a second any of these guys are expendable. It's a long season, and there's no telling who will get hot and who will get hurt. Do we really want to see what David Winfree can do?

Headfirst Slides

Apparently Nick Punto still likes to slide headfirst into first base. Unlike many of Punto's harshest critics, I like this trait. Think about it. He might hurt himself. That's the most valuable thing he can do. Even if he slides in head-first, he's still out when he pops up to the second baseman. Moreover, when he slides into first, he can't overrun the bag, turn the wrong way, and get tagged out while he tries to innocently wander back to the base.

The Infield

The StarTribune story regarding the Crede acquisition claims the Twins head into 2009 with their best infield in a while.

But the addition of a proven player such as Crede to play with former MVP Justin Morneau at first base, table-setter Alexi Casilla at second and reliable shortstop Nick Punto appears to give the Twins their best all-around infield in a long time.

I love the word table-setter to describe Casilla. He and Punto have more business as busboys at Denny's than they do heading to spring training as the favorites to start up the middle. In his tenure as Twin, Punto has been anything but reliable. Throughout 2008 he was streaky and injury prone. He flirted with the Mendoza line during the 2007 season following a few hot months in '06. Last season, when he wasn't striking out, popping up, and spiking his helmet in disgust, he was committing baserunning blunders worse than Willie Mays Hayes.

The Crede Signing

Only time will tell if Crede helps the Twins win ballgames in 2009. That's exactly why I'm excited about it. I've already complained that we hoped Buscher would be adequate at third. I think many Twins fans would also agree that we know that Harris would be serviceable at third. Where's the fun in that? With Crede, it's anybody's guess.

Usually, I'm not one to put too much credence into baseball statistics, but the Crede signing made me curious. How much of his career production is a product of lighting up the Twins? I did a simple analysis comparing his career numbers, his career numbers against the Twins, and his career numbers excluding the Twins. I multiplied the respective rates of HR/AB by 500 AB to see how a typical season might look. Remarkably, there was little difference.

Career: 23 HR
Against the Twins: 25 HR
Career Excluding Twins: 22 HR

Now, remember that as a Twin, he'll face all the same teams except he faces Chicago instead of Minnesota. I don't think White Sox fans would be as cynical and angry if players like Joe Crede weren't hitting way too many home runs against them. So, I think it's safe to say we don't have to worry about Crede's career production being a product of Twins pitching.

Francisco Liriano

My grandmother put it best. She hated Livan Hernandez. She gets most of her baseball updates from the newspaper, and since the story broke during the day, I called her to inform her that the Twins had released the veteran right-hander. Without hesitation, she retorted, "Who'd they call up, Liriano? He's not any better!" Strictly by the numbers, he pitched pretty well in August and into September. Despite this, he looked like he could revert to the ineffective no-control pitcher we'd seen demoted in the spring. Following the Twins sweep of the White Sox, I wish I could have felt more confidence in the southpaw when he took the hill to open the series with the Royals. In the most important start of his career, Liriano proved my grandma right. He allowed 6 runs on 11 hits in less than 5 innings of work. For all his whining when he was in Rochester, I'd think he could handle the Royals with a playoff spot on the line.

He's still plenty young and has a good arm. But don't hold your breath waiting for him to be the next Johan Santana. I'd be content if he could roughly match Eric Milton.